Monthly Supply Chain Pulse - 32

📰 Supply Chain Pulse | Monthly Edition – July 9, 2026

Your Go-To Source for Supply Chain Insights, Trends, and Actionable Advice

Every so often a month arrives where the ground shifts beneath the supply chain. July is that month. A major tariff expires on the 24th, freight costs hit new highs, and the first genuine cost relief of 2026 is finally showing up in the data. Let's get into it.

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📊 Key Metrics

Staying competitive means keeping an eye on the data that matters most. Here are six supply chain metrics we monitor and update each month.

🛳️ Drewry World Container Index (WCI)

The Shanghai to New York rate has now reached $7,902 per 40ft container, more than double what shippers were paying in early May. To put that in perspective, a company importing 50 containers a year on this route is now facing roughly $120,000 more in annual freight costs than they budgeted just eight weeks ago. What makes this spike different from past ones is how carriers are behaving. Instead of chasing volume, they are intentionally limiting the number of ships available, with eight canceled sailings announced for next week alone, while also adding new fees on top, including a $3,000 per container Peak Season Surcharge from HMM starting July 15. Even the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not cooled prices, since a recent attack on a containership near Oman is keeping risk premiums built into rates. The practical takeaway is simple. If you have fall or winter inventory that can ship early, ship it now, and if you are quoting new work that includes imported materials, price it using today's freight costs rather than hoping rates come back down.

🚚 DAT Truckload Freight Rate Index

Van spot rates settled at $3.06 per mile this month, down three cents from June, but don't let the small dip fool you into thinking relief has arrived. Rates are still running roughly 39% higher than this time last year, and the underlying market has fundamentally changed. Last month's big story was spot rates overtaking contract rates for the first time since 2022, and that pressure is now working its way into contract negotiations, with aggregate contract rates already up nearly 10% year over year and expected to climb further in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, the holiday week around July 4 showed just how thin capacity really is, with rates on the top 50 freight lanes jumping 13 cents in a single week when trucks got scarce. The lesson for shippers is that this market now punishes anyone caught needing a truck on short notice.

🛢 Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index

The CRB index measures a basket of 19 commodities including energy, agriculture, and metals. It’s widely considered a leading indicator of inflation, economic health, and overall cost trends for goods across the market. An increase tends to signify an increase in economic activity while a decrease tends to signify a slowdown in economic activity.

The CRB Index eased to 363.09 this month, a 3.5% decline from June's 376.39, and this time the relief is real and broader than last month's oil-only dip. The World Bank's July data confirms it. Energy prices dropped 17.7% in June as Brent crude fell more than 20% on the back of the interim U.S.-Iran agreement, but unlike last month, the non-energy categories finally joined in, with metals down 2.4%, food down 2.6%, and raw materials down 1.2%. For manufacturers, this is the first month in 2026 where input cost pressure has genuinely softened across the board rather than just shifting from one category to another. That said, keep perspective. The index is still sitting far above where it started the year, and the World Bank continues to project overall commodity prices to finish 2026 up 16%. Treat this as a window, not a trend. If suppliers approached you with price increases over the past two months citing raw material costs, this is your opening to push back, ask for documentation, and negotiate. The suppliers who raised prices on the way up rarely volunteer reductions on the way down unless someone asks.

🇺🇸 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

To create this index, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys around 250 manufacturers, asking about factors like employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventory levels, delivery times, prices, costs, and business forecasts for the next six months. An index level above zero signifies improving conditions, while a level below zero indicates worsening conditions. Read more here. 

The index bounced back to 10.3 in June, recovering from May's brief dip into negative territory and confirming what last month's forward-looking data hinted at, that May was a pause and not the start of a downturn. The rebound was driven by real demand. New orders surged 29 points to 27.3, shipments climbed to 14.9, and unfilled orders turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, meaning regional manufacturers now have backlogs building again. Employment also hit its best reading since January at 7.9, a notable shift after months of job shedding. The one number worth watching closely is the widening gap between what manufacturers pay and what they charge. Prices paid rose to 53.2 while prices received fell to 20.3, its lowest since February, which means manufacturers in our region are absorbing cost increases faster than they can pass them along. If that describes your business, you are not alone, and it makes this a smart time to revisit your own pricing before the backlog-driven busy season arrives. Demand is coming back, and the firms that reprice ahead of it will protect their margins while everyone else plays catch-up.

🧾 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The PMI is an economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies, measuring the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. It covers metrics such as new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

The June PMI came in at 53.3%, down slightly from May's 54.0%, but manufacturing has now grown for six straight months, the longest streak since 2022. The most important news this month is about costs. The Prices Index fell 9.1 points to 73.0, the biggest one-month drop in nearly four years, as oil prices came down following the interim U.S.-Iran agreement. In plain terms, the cost of raw materials is still going up, but much more slowly than it was a few months ago. Demand also remains solid. New orders grew for the sixth month in a row, and customer inventories are still very low, which usually means more orders are coming as businesses restock. Hiring even improved to its best level since January 2025. Put it all together and this is the best setup manufacturers have seen all year. Orders are steady and cost pressure is finally easing. If you have been waiting for the right moment to lock in supplier pricing or negotiate contracts for the second half of the year, this is it.

📈 🌎 GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, produced by S&P Global and GEP, is a leading indicator derived from monthly surveys of approximately 27,000 businesses across 40+ countries, tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs. A reading above zero signals that supply chain capacity is being stretched and volatility is increasing; a reading below zero indicates underutilized capacity and lower volatility.

The May GEP Index eased slightly to 1.55 from April's 1.64, but supply chains remain under some of the heaviest strain since late 2022. Companies around the world are still stockpiling aggressively, with safety stock levels at their highest since January 2023 and shortages of critical materials at a three-and-a-half-year high. Here is the part worth noting. GEP's analysts believe this buying rush is temporary. Once companies finish building their inventory cushions, purchasing is expected to slow in the second half of the year, which should ease pressure and potentially soften prices. The smart play right now is balance. Buy what you truly need for the next few months while supply is tight, but avoid overbuying at peak prices for inventory you may not need until the market cools. The companies that get burned in cycles like this are the ones who panic-buy at the top.

🌍 Global Hot Topic: EU and China Edge Toward a Trade Showdown (Click To Read Article)

While the U.S.-China trade fight dominates headlines, a second front is quietly opening between the world's other two largest trading powers. On June 29, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic hosted China's Commerce Minister in Brussels for tense negotiations over what Europe now openly calls a crisis. China's trade surplus with the EU hit a record 360.6 billion euros in 2025, roughly 1 billion euros per day, and it is still growing. Chinese firms now dominate Europe's supply of solar panels, rare earths, chemicals, and industrial robots, while Chinese electric vehicles just passed 10% of all European auto sales for the first time. The fallout is hitting Europe's industrial giants hard, with Volkswagen reportedly preparing to cut up to 100,000 jobs and BMW and Mercedes-Benz announcing their own workforce reductions. The EU is now weighing tougher measures, including legislation that would prioritize European-made goods in government purchasing, while China has warned it is "not afraid" to let relations slide to a freezing point. The two sides agreed to formal workstreams and will meet again in October, but the direction of travel is clear. Europe is done waiting.

Why does this matter to a U.S. manufacturer? Because when China's access to European markets tightens, that export capacity has to go somewhere, and history shows it flows toward whatever markets remain open, often at aggressive prices. At the same time, European manufacturers squeezed at home will compete harder for the same global suppliers, materials, and customers that American companies rely on. A U.S.-China trade war was one thing. A world where the EU and China are also in conflict means every major sourcing decision now sits inside a three-way geopolitical chess match. The manufacturers who understand where their components actually come from, at every tier of their supply chain, will be the ones who can move when the board shifts again.

🇺🇸 US Hot Topic: The 10% Tariff on Nearly Everything Expires July 24 — Here's What Happens Next (Click To Read Article)

Mark your calendar. On July 24, the 10% surcharge that has applied to virtually every product imported into the United States since February is set to expire automatically. The tariff was imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law with a hard 150-day time limit that the President cannot extend on his own. Only Congress can keep it alive, no extension bill has been introduced, and passage is considered unlikely. That means in about two weeks, one of the largest across-the-board import surcharges in modern U.S. history simply disappears. For a company importing $5 million a year in goods, this tariff has been costing roughly $500,000 annually, so the expiration is real money. But before anyone celebrates, there is a catch. The administration has been preparing replacements. New Section 301 investigations covering 60 trading partners are expected to conclude this summer, with proposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% timed to land right as Section 122 sunsets. Unlike the expiring surcharge, these new tariffs would have no time limit and no rate ceiling. In other words, the tariff you know is about to be replaced by tariffs you don't.

So what should you actually do? First, if you have flexibility on shipment timing, late July and August may offer a brief window of lower landed costs before replacements take effect, and even a few weeks of savings adds up on large orders. Second, if you paid the Section 122 surcharge over the past five months, talk to your customs broker about filing protests now to preserve your refund rights, because a federal court has already ruled the tariff unlawful and the appeal is still working through the system. Third, do not build your 2027 budget assuming tariff relief, because the clear pattern is that when one tariff falls, another rises to take its place.

📈 Ena Monthly Stock Pick

$MSFT — Microsoft is trading well below its highs from last year and at its most attractive valuation in a few years while the business remains rock solid. Its cloud division grew 40% last quarter, its AI products are being adopted by most of the largest companies in America, and it continues to generate enormous profits quarter after quarter. The stock has dipped mainly because Microsoft is spending heavily on data centers to power the future of AI, and some investors are nervous about the price tag. For long-term investors, that investment is exactly what you want to see from a company positioning itself for the next decade. Strong business, temporary discount, long runway ahead.

• As always, it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market

• Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation for any investment. The content is for information purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

🚀 Your Supply Chain, Your Competitive Edge

Most manufacturers we talk to are leaving money on the table not because they aren't smart, but because sourcing is time-consuming, relationships get comfortable, and there's always something more urgent to deal with. That's exactly where we come in. Ena Source works as an embedded extension of your team, finding better suppliers, negotiating better prices, and building the kind of supply chain that stops being a problem and starts being an advantage. We work with small and mid-size manufacturers across the Mid-Atlantic, and our first conversation is always free.

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